president would be re-elected. it happened. so how do the odds look for a recession in 2013? > > the markets tell us a lot. when we were looking at the election, we were looking at a prediction market that had a lot of volume. volume is the key to price discovery because of all the buyers and sellers. when we are looking at the fiscal cliff numbers, they are not as clear, because there is not as many traders to get that information from. > > ben bernanke was in new york yesterday, and he is urging lawmakers to strike a deal on the fiscal cliff sooner rather than later. should we be concerned? because it sounds like the fed is worried. > > we are always concerned. if you look at it, the long-term bears have been beaten up by the markets for the last four years. so, the market has been resilient and bounced back from everything. if we look at some of these predictions markets, there is about a 50/50 chance it will be above 13,000 in the dow, and there is a very low chance, only a 20% chance, albeit on small volume, t